The dry floods

In 1499, the German astrologer Johann Stöffler published “The Ephemerides,” a work in which he forecasted major catastrophes that would occur in February 1524 following a rare planetary conjunction. This astrological alignment had been previously elaborated by an ancient Persian astrologer named Abu Ma’shar, who lived between 787 and 886 AD. Stöffler placed utmost confidence in his studies, which concerned the planets then known: Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, and the Sun (which was still considered a planet at the time). These planets were supposed to gather in a relatively small region of the sky in the constellation of Pisces. This event occurred during the Renaissance, one of the highest points ever reached by Western culture. During this period, man, placed at the center of the universe and created by God, became the author of his own destiny thanks to his earthly qualities.

From a historical perspective, the early decades of the Renaissance represent a painful and troubled period. Famines, diseases, and devastating wars afflicted Europe. In battles, soldiers were hit without any regard by artillery and cannons. The most evident and unsettling effect of this new military technology was the high number of deaths left on the battlefields, with horribly mutilated corpses deprived of burial, causing serious damage to public health as well. Furthermore, in this historical period, people unleashed against minorities that served as scapegoats, such as witches and Jews. This created fertile ground for the spread of prophecies. It is not surprising, therefore, that during this period numerous apocalyptic visions and prophecies followed one another stubbornly, and the need to seek premonitory signs in the stars became exacerbated. Johann Stöffler’s prophecy had a tremendous resonance in Europe. It was widely commented on by scholars and spread among the people by traveling preachers.

The astrologer Niccolò Peranzone, in addition to predicting heavy rainfall and a rise in river levels, foresaw a series of events for February 4: “earthquakes, imprisonments, searches for treasures and alchemical objectives, construction of buildings, investigations of hidden things, and administration of inheritances.”

The astrologer Johannes Carion, in the service of Joachim I of Brandenburg, specified that the heavy rainfall would be harmful not only in the valleys protected by mountains but also in coastal areas or regions subject to the constellations of Pisces and Virgo, which would be particularly at risk. The flooded lands, moreover, would become barren in the following years, causing famines and death especially among the poor. The following autumn would bring lethal diseases to the populations. Consequently, the nature of the devastations began to be circumscribed to a single terrible flood that would submerge humanity, similar to the times of Noah. This event would not only be caused by the unusual astral positions but also as a just punishment for the sins of men.

Panic spread everywhere: in Vienna, as early as 1523, many people had sold fields and estates, while others postponed marriages and contracts. Some deserted field work in the certainty of the imminent end. In Rome, instead, everyone believed in the imminent catastrophe. All the upper floors of houses were rented out, and the nobles preferred to abandon their city residences to move to the mountains. Pope Alexander VI found refuge in the hermitage of Camaldoli. The Venetian consul Lunardo Anselmi reported a disastrous storm that occurred in the city of Naples in October 1523, lasting four days. During this event, the street of San Gennaro turned into a raging river that swept away trees and houses, causing the deaths of many people. These events convinced the people that it was certainly a premonitory sign of the great scourge that would soon strike the world. The flood issue became universal thanks to the printing press and the popular dissemination of various theories and interpretations of celestial signs: “it was a true global sensation.” In essence, about sixty scholars produced more than a hundred pamphlets.

“The well-known politician and philosopher Niccolò Machiavelli adhered to Stöffler’s theory about the end of the world and urged the population of Florence to take refuge in the nearby hills and live with the hermits. Contrarily, Leonardo da Vinci published a pamphlet expressing his displeasure with this catastrophic hypothesis.”

At the moment when the people sought in the Bible Noah’s instructions on how to build an ark, the noble Count Von Iggleheim probably represented the climax of this case of collective anguish. Seriously concerned about the alarming news circulating in the country, the German aristocrat built an imposing three-story wooden ark on the River Rhine. However, it was stormed by his fellow citizens on February 20, 1524, when rain began to fall after a long period of drought. The ensuing riot caused the death of hundreds of people, and the poor Count Von Iggleheim was stoned to death, losing his life during the disturbances.

Despite the cases of collective panic, not everyone believed in the astrological prophecies. Since February coincided with Carnival, the theme became the subject of satirical attacks, jokes, and mockery. Carnival, moreover, was traditionally associated with the flood, regardless of the 1524 forecast, as a return to chaos, to the primordial state, in behavior and language, before the restoration of order sanctioned by Lent.Johann Stöffler was later forced to admit that he had been mistaken regarding the possible consequences of the planetary conjunction. However, by astronomically examining his own date of birth, he became convinced that he should die on a certain day because something was supposed to fall from the sky and strike him. One day, while discussing with some friends in his own house and trying to take a book from a shelf, a support detached, causing all the books he was holding to fall on his head, severely injuring him. Even this prediction proved to be wrong, and Stöffler died of the plague in Tübingen in 1530.

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